Lab Summaries - Crypto Predictions in 2023

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2023 is right round the corner!

Here's what the folks at Blockworks and Empire podcast have in mind about 2023 - thoughts, predictions and much more.

83 minutes of discussions summarised into a succinct quick read here for you.

Do check out the full video here for a lot more of the in-depth discussions!

Current market sentiment vs previous cycles

• Comparing the current market to previous cycles, we observe more tangible use cases in this cycle mainly in NFTs, DeFi and stablecoins.

• This is our global financial crisis moment in crypto with overleveraged players all around.

• But compared to previous cycles, no one is questioning the survival of crypto industry this time round.

• The flight of talent, potential use cases and benefits of crypto are now acknowledged amongst institutions and market players.

• Compared to previous cycles, the impact of Mt Gox was a lot worse. Back then, they were the key exchange in the market. Today, we still have many other alternative exchanges.

Market cycles

• At this point, it is likely a market bottom on crypto, but not yet on equities.

• Based on the MV RV (market value vs realised value) chart, it is currently at historical lows which hints at a market bottom.

2023 Predictions

• Market share of top CeFi exchanges (e.g. Coinbase) will fall - with the move towards self custody, DeFi protocols like uniswap might see higher trading volume instead.

• Market share of top NFT marketplaces (e.g. Opensea) will drop - due to the growth of trading platforms and aggregators like Blur, vertical specific exchanges (e.g. music, gaming), and brands launching their own white-labelled marketplaces.

• Stablecoins will continue to be a large adopter and driver in the space, serving a massive use case.

• There is value in memes, entertainment and speculation: Here’s where coins like Doge and Shiba might still be relevant.

• Crypto wallet wars will likely emerge in 2023: Currently wallets have poor design and UX due to a monopoly from Metamask. New wallets from incumbent players, exchanges, and hardware security module wallets will start to emerge. Wallets will emerge as a digital home, beyond just a place to hold crypto.

• More projects to build their own chains and be vertically integrated, to be able to extract more value from existing users.

• Introduction of brand NFTs, where every business will launch their own digital collectibles to use for marketing and innovation purposes.

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